Mesoeconomica operates with proprietary capital, running concentrated long-term positions to capture asymmetric repricing opportunities.
The Framework
The research integrates regime identification, ensuring that macro relationships are not treated as static, but as state-dependent structures evolving with fiscal, monetary, and liquidity dynamics.
The objective is to map how macro configurations translate into asset behaviour, isolating the conditions under which specific relationships become dominant and economically relevant.*
Research Architecture
Macro regime classification. Structural identification of the prevailing macro-financial state in the United States and the euro area, integrating fiscal position, monetary stance, liquidity and funding conditions, and systemic pressure into a discrete regime classification. Each classification carries an explicit fragility reading — a measure of how close prevailing conditions sit to a regime boundary.
Cycle inflection detection. Identification of turning points in the US business cycle, built to separate deceleration within an expansion from genuine phase transition — the distinction on which late-cycle allocation errors concentrate. The design is sequential: single-indicator alerts are treated as hypotheses pending confirmation, not as calls.
Cross-asset state dependence. Systematic monitoring of the relationships linking liquidity, dollar, rates, and commodity variables — establishing whether historically reliable co-movements are conforming, weakening, or inverting, and whether observed transitions constitute noise or structural change.
Asset-level structure analysis. Dedicated coverage of positioning, flows, and term-structure dynamics where the macro-financial state translates most directly into price behavior.
Institutional Level Deliverables
Coverage is delivered through two channels.
Systematic macro context. A fortnightly assessment of the prevailing macro-financial state: regime classification, the status of monitored cross-asset relationships, and cycle position. It functions as the conditioning layer for allocation — establishing whether the current environment favors risk deployment, defensive rotation, or liquidity preservation, by asset class.
Regime-contingent signals. Where structural identification supports it, the research produces model-validated signals — active only within the regimes in which their historical edge has been verified, and explicitly suspended outside them. Signals are decision objects with defined conditions of validity, not unconditional forecasts.
* Derived scientific publications are open and emerge from unresolved structural propositions identified within the existing literature.